By Helen Weedon, Managing Director, the Satcoms Innovation Group
When I was first asked to moderate a panel on Space Situational Awareness (SSA) warfare at Defence in Space, I have to admit, I wasn’t too sure what that involves. To me SSA is about knowing where all objects are in space to ensure safety of flight and avoid collisions. As I delved deeper into the topic the idea of not wishing to be seen seemed an alien concept, but putting it into the concept of wars in space, it of course makes a lot of sense. But how can we enable SSA warfare techniques when necessary, without impacting the safety of all objects? This was something we discussed at length during the panel, which included Dr Stuart Eves of SJE Space, Chris Dorn at Inverse Quanta, Clinton Clark of ExoAnalytic Solutions, and Peter Round at LMO.
What is the threat we are facing?
As the battleground begins to transcend into space, we are facing a very real threat that could see satellites destroyed, impacting major services across the globe. And of course, the result would be far-reaching when you consider how many services rely on satellite communication.
Ahead of the panel, there were two fascinating presentations by two of my panellists. Clinton Clark of ExoAnalytic Solutions showed some pretty scary graphs and animations of dynamic space operations in GEO that are already happening today. While the animations shown haven’t yet led to any collisions, it is a stark reminder of what is possible, and being tested. This includes satellites suddenly changing direction, for example, which would make it impossible for neighbouring satellites to predict, and crucially avoid such manoeuvres.
Dr Stuart Eves of SJE Space then took us further into the threats to space systems, the creation of anti-satellite weapons, and the tests that have already taken place against satellites in orbit. The list of potential threats, that we also explored more on the panel is worryingly long, from Anti-Satellite weapons to Exo-atmospheric nuclear bursts, RF weapons, and cyber-attacks, to camouflage, concealment, and deception.
How do we counter it?
Setting the scene, the panellists explained the concept of SSA Warfare, which is aimed at countering attacks by complicating the task of a space aggressor. This involves limiting the SSA information on which any attack would be based. Stuart explained there are three key principles for SSA warfare:
- To maintain the accuracy of one’s own SSA information.
- To degrade the accuracy of the opposition’s SSA information.
- To avoid collateral hazards that could imperil the operations of non-combatant space operators, and so mitigate the potential legal implications.
It is safe to assume that space aggressors may have access to sensors that can essentially unmask the hidden satellites, so there are a range of techniques that can be applied to counter that. This includes modifying a satellite’s observable signature, changing the satellites concept of operations, or RF countermeasures, amongst others.
What are the implications for safety of flight?
My biggest question around this area of SSA warfare has got to be how that impacts space traffic management and safety of flight. With so many satellite launches happening all the time, and many more planned in the near future, it is becoming increasingly important to balance keeping safe from space aggressors with ensuring sharing of data to keep satellites safe from those accidental collisions with each other, or debris. And balance is exactly what it will take, but I’m not sure we have all of the answers just yet. What is clear is that it will take industry-wide coordination, both with the operators themselves, and maybe even the users, to ensure we have the right processes and tools in place to remain safe from all the threats we are facing, whether intentional or accidental.